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Javid/Sunak resignations – snap analysis
It could all be over for Boris Johnson – although quite how long it will take his enemies to finish him off is not at all clear and his defenestration does not look immediate. The two byelection defeats almost two weeks ago prompted calls for cabinet ministers to mount a coup against Boris Johnson, and it finally it seems to be happening.
We have not had confirmation yet, but it is impossible to believe that the resignations of Sajid Javid and Rishi Sunak were not coordinated. Perhaps there are more to come.
The Sunak resignation is the most serious of the two. Since the spring statement, the chancellor has not been the obvious heir apparent he once was. But he is still a powerful figure in the party. The resignation of Nigel Lawson helped to bring down Margaret Thatcher, although it took just over a year for that to eventually play out.
Even if there are no more resignations, the mood in the Conservative party has already turned against Johnson – perhaps decisively.
Under current rules Johnson is safe from another leadership challenge until next summer. But the executive of the 1922 Committee can change the rules whenever it wants. A new anti-Johnson executive is expected to be elected next week, but even the current executive – more evently split between loyalists and critics – could act now if it felt there was a consensus in the party.
Johnson is famously stubborn, and he is unlikely to quit just because two ministers have decided to go. But increasingly Conservative MPs believe they have no chance of winning the next election under his leadership. Ultimately that assessment should prove decisive.
Key events:
Summary
Boris Johnson has been dealt the biggest blow of his premiership by the resignations of two senior cabinet ministers in the wake of his handling of the row over former deputy chief whip Chris Pincher.
Nadhim Zahawi and Steve Barclay have since replaced Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javid as chancellor and health secretary.
Here are all the other developments you may have missed:
- Chancellor Rishi Sunak, health secretary Sajid Javid, four parliamentary private secretaries, the Conservative vice-chair, two trade envoys and the solicitor general all resigned on Tuesday evening.
- Sajid Javid triggered the exodus, resigning as health secretary, followed a few minutes later by the chancellor, Rishi Sunak. Javid said: “I regret that I can no longer continue in good conscience,” while Sunak said the government should be run “properly, competently and seriously”. It appears likely the resignations of Javid and Sunak were coordinated. Most of the remaining members of the cabinet expressed support for Johnson to continue as PM. Johnson told Javid he was “sorry” to receive his resignation letter.
- Education secretary, Nadhim Zahawi, was appointed as the new chancellor. Zahawi made no comment when asked by press if he would “spray public money around to save Boris Johnson’s skin” before leaving in a ministerial car.
- Steve Barclay was announced as the new health secretary. The former Brexit secretary said it was “an honour” to take up the role. “Our NHS and social care staff have showed us time and again – throughout the pandemic and beyond – what it means to work with compassion and dedication to transform lives.
- Michelle Donelan was appointed the new education secretary after just two years as a minister, rewarded for her loyalty and her embrace of the culture wars and curbing of universities that have been a hallmark of Boris Johnson’s administration.
- Bim Afolami MP announced his resignation as Tory vice-chair live on TalkTV.
- Jonathan Gullis, Virginia Crosbie, Nicola Richards and Saqib Bhatti MP all resigned as parliamentary private secretaries while Alex Chalk resigned as solicitor general. Stafford MP, Theo Clarke, also resigned as trade envoy to Kenya.
- Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer, said it’s “clear the government is now collapsing”. Starmer said government ministers have been “complicit” in the prime minister’s disgracing of his office. “They backed him when he lied. They backed him when he mocked the sacrifices of the British people,” he told reporters.
- A snap poll by YouGov this evening found that 69% of Britons say Boris Johnson should resign. This is 11pts higher than when the pollsters asked the same question on 9 June.
- Under current rules Johnson is safe from another leadership challenge until next summer. But the executive of the 1922 Committee can change the rules whenever it wants. A new anti-Johnson executive is expected to be elected next week, but even the current executive – more evenly split between loyalists and critics – could act now if it felt there was a consensus in the party.
Labour MP for Birmingham Yardley, Jess Phillips, has offered some sage advice this evening.
“I’m going to bed and you should too, because the absolute nonsense will still very much be happening in the morning,” Phillips quipped.
I’m going to bed and you should too, because the absolute nonsense will still very much be happening in the morning.
— Jess Phillips MP (@jessphillips) July 5, 2022
Former Foreign Secretary, Sir Malcolm Rifkind, also believes Boris Johnson is on his way out.
Speaking to BBC Newsnight, Rifkind said:
He’s out – the only question is whether it will take hours, days or a week or so.
I think he first became vulnerable the day he became prime minister. It was a terrible decision … he was totally unfit to be prime minister … It was an enormous gamble and one that shouldn’t have been taken.”
The former Scotland Secretary added: “Pretty well the whole country thinks he is a loser.”
“The antipathy to Boris Johnson in Scotland is now matched by an equal antipathy to Boris Johnson in England and Wales as well…”
Ex-Scottish Conservatives leader, Ruth Davidson, has also weighed in on the fallout, describing Boris Johnson as “ill-equipped” to be prime minister.
“This is clearly coming to the end game,” Davison told BBC Newsnight.
[MPs] can either decide that it’s going to end slowly, torturously, drawn out, with rebellion after rebellion … or they can move to change the rules of the ‘22 [committee] bring this to a head, make sure that the prime minister leaves …”
Andrew Mitchell, a former Conservative chief whip, has compared Boris Johnson to Russia’s Rasputin.
The Conservative MP told BBC Newsnight:
It’s a bit like the death of Rasputin. He’s been poisoned, stabbed, he’s been shot, his body’s been dumped in the freezing river and still he lives.”
Mitchell added that he believes it is “over” for the prime minister.
Well I’m afraid it is over and the question now is how much longer this is going to go on.”
“This is an abnormal prime minister – brilliantly charismatic, very funny, very amusing, big, big character, but I’m afraid he has neither the character, nor the temperament to be our prime minister.”
“It’s a bit like the death of Rasputin. He’s been poisoned, stabbed, he’s been shot, his body’s been dumped in a freezing river and still he lives.”
Yet former Chief Whip Andrew Mitchell MP says “it is over” for Boris Johnson’s premiership#Newsnight pic.twitter.com/RDmpppspzt
— BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight) July 5, 2022
The Labour leader, Keir Starmer, said government ministers have been ‘complicit’ in the prime minister’s disgracing of his office.
“They backed him when he lied. They backed him when he mocked the sacrifices of the British people,” he told reporters earlier today.
Watch Starmer’s remarks in the video below.
A summary of today’s developments
- On a bruising day for Boris Johnson, the chancellor, the health secretary, four parliamentary private secretaries, the Conservative vice-chair, two trade envoys and the solicitor general all resigned this evening.
- Sajid Javid triggered the exodus, resigning as health secretary, followed a few minutes later by the chancellor, Rishi Sunak. Javid said: “I regret that I can no longer continue in good conscience,” while Sunak said the government should be run “properly, competently and seriously”. Most of the remaining members of the cabinet expressed support for Johnson to continue as PM.
- Nadhim Zahawi was appointed as the new chancellor. Steve Barclay was announced as the new health secretary, while Michelle Donelan was appointed the new education secretary.
- Bim Afolami MP announced his resignation as Tory vice-chair live on TalkTV.
- Jonathan Gullis, Virginia Crosbie, Nicola Richards and Saqib Bhatti MP all resigned as parliamentary private secretaries while Alex Chalk resigned as solicitor general.
- A snap poll by YouGov this evening found that 69% of Britons say Boris Johnson should resign. This is 11pts higher than when the pollsters asked the same question on 9 June.
Richard Adams
Michelle Donelan takes over from Nadhim Zahawi as education secretary after just two years as a minister, rewarded for her loyalty and her embrace of the culture wars and curbing of universities that have been a hallmark of Boris Johnson’s administration.
Moving up from her current role of higher and further education minister, Donelan will have to quickly take charge of a mess of unfinished business left by Zahawi in his brief 10-month tenure, most notably the schools bill that last week the new chancellor was forced to gut after opposition from former ministers and supporters in the Lords.
But Donelan has impressed those who work with her for her no-nonsense attitude, and as someone who – unlike Zahawi or Johnson – isn’t interested in the trappings of office or making friends.
Conservative MP Andrew Mitchell, a former chief whip, has compared Boris Johnson with Rasputin.
“It’s a bit like the death of Rasputin. He’s been poisoned, stabbed, he’s been shot, his body’s been dumped in the freezing river and still he lives,” Mitchell told BBC Newsnight.
He was also adamant that it was “over” for the prime minister.
“This is an abnormal prime minister – brilliantly charismatic, very funny, very amusing, big, big character, but I’m afraid he has neither the character nor the temperament to be our prime minister.”
