Thursday night’s top-of-the-table clash has created a fresh favourite for the minor premiership, while Gold Coast’s massive comeback kept them and three rivals in the finals hunt.
This is The Run Home, where Foxfooty.com.au analyses every club’s remaining fixture and tries to predict how the rest of the year will play out.
Which teams could take advantage of an easy draw to climb the ladder, and which clubs could tumble down the table based on a tough run of games?
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How does the Run Home work?
The below projections predict each game on a percentage chance basis, and then use those odds to give each team a projected win total.
For example, we might say two teams have a 50 per cent chance each of winning a very even game. So they’d each get 0.5 projected wins for their total. That’s why almost all teams have a projection that’s not a round number.
It’s all about probability, and it’s more accurate than trying to tip wins and losses, because no-one can tip nine every round. It also means the predicted win totals are naturally conservative at the top, and optimistic at the bottom.
Think of the projected win totals as the average result if you played the season out 100 times.
PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS
First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions at the MCG
First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Collingwood vs Richmond at the MCG
Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Carlton vs Sydney Swans at the MCG
Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Melbourne vs Fremantle at the MCG
Note: It was reported in 2018 (when the possibility existed) the AFL would consider playing finals on Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday if all four games “should” be at the MCG, rather than the usual Thursday, Friday, two on Saturday format.
The most likely alternative would be playing one at Marvel Stadium, because Geelong’s GMHBA Stadium is mid-development and they’re not playing a final in front of 20k fans down there. Would they consider moving Carlton vs Sydney, featuring the lowest-ranked host, to the dome?
PROJECTED FINAL LADDER
1. Geelong Cats (15.8 projected wins)
2. Melbourne (15.4)
3. Fremantle (15.3)
4. Brisbane Lions (14.5)
5. Collingwood (14.05)
6. Carlton (14)
7. Sydney Swans (13.75)
8. Richmond (12.8)
9. St Kilda (12.1)
10. Gold Coast Suns (11.45)
11. Western Bulldogs (11.2)
12. Port Adelaide (10.95)
13. Hawthorn (7.9)
14. Adelaide Crows (7.65)
15. Essendon (7.5)
16. GWS Giants (7.4)
17. West Coast Eagles (3.8)
18. North Melbourne (2.35)
Below, all 18 clubs are listed and analysed in the current ladder order.
Historic chance of playing finals from current record is calculated using data from the 1995-2019 seasons. For example, no 12-4 team has ever missed the finals, so the teams level on top of the ladder are given a 100% chance of making it.
Remaining fixture difficulty is calculated using the average percentage of remaining opponents. This naturally advantages teams with a strong percentage themselves (because they can’t play themselves) and vice versa, but is a basic metric of how tough the remaining fixture is.
1. GEELONG CATS (12-4, 136.1%)
Remaining games
Round 18: Carlton at the MCG
Round 19: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Round 20: Western Bulldogs at GMHBA Stadium
Round 21: St Kilda at GMHBA Stadium
Round 22: Gold Coast Suns at Metricon Stadium
Round 23: West Coast Eagles at GMHBA Stadium
Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 100%
Remaining fixture difficulty: 11th-hardest
The common perception is that we’ve been here before with Geelong – they’re a great home and away season team that hasn’t produced the same results in September.
That may be true, but the Cats also haven’t been top of the ladder this deep into a season very often; in fact, just once in 14 seasons. The other time was back in 2019, when they were pretty clearly one of the two best teams in it, but in the prelim had Lachie Henderson instead of Tom Hawkins at full-forward (and still led Richmond by 21 at halftime… that’s the flag that got away, maybe even more than 2020).
Anyway. The Cats are arguably premiership favourites now, and at the very least favourites to finish on top. After all they only play one more top-eight side (Carlton) – the Demons play four, the Lions and Dockers three each.
Games against the Power, Bulldogs, Saints and Suns won’t be easy, but those teams are in the middle of the ladder rather than at the top for a reason. That easier draw, plus their AFL-best percentage, puts them in pole position.
Fox Footy’s projection: 15.8 wins, finishing 1st
2. MELBOURNE (12-4, 133.4%)
Remaining games
Round 18: Port Adelaide at TIO Traeger Park
Round 19: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium
Round 20: Fremantle at Optus Stadium
Round 21: Collingwood at the MCG
Round 22: Carlton at the MCG
Round 23: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 100%
Remaining fixture difficulty: Hardest
The problem with having the hardest fixture, as it turns out, is that sometimes you lose games.
The Demons came into Round 17 with three away games against the other members of the top four left; they’re now 0-1 in them. As we’ve said a few times now, those results will determine the eventual order of the four (as well as many upsets outside of them).
So now Geelong has pole position to claim the minor premiership. That creates two problems for the Dees; hosting a qualifying final would be ideal, but their second-best option would be an ‘away’ one at the MCG against Geelong. That’s now much less likely.
However Essendon gave them a big hand by knocking off Brisbane on Sunday. You could argue it’s now a three-team race for the top two, with the winner in Round 20’s clash at Optus Stadium favoured to join Geelong at the top.
Still not a great weekend for the Demons, but not as terrible as it seemed it would be on Friday morning.
Fox Footy’s projection: 15.4 wins, finishing 2nd
3. FREMANTLE (12-4, 123.8%)
Remaining games
Round 18: Sydney Swans at Optus Stadium
Round 19: Richmond at Marvel Stadium
Round 20: Melbourne at Optus Stadium
Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium
Round 23: GWS Giants at Manuka Oval
Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 100%
Remaining fixture difficulty: 10th-hardest
The AFL’s second-longest finals drought is over. (The Blues have the longest, and the Suns aren’t in a drought, they’ve just never seen rain.)
Maybe they’ll have to sweat on that 13th win to lock them in, but a historic collapse excepted, the Dockers will play finals after taking care of business against St Kilda.
The next three weeks should determine how high they finish. Win one or two, and a top four spot is almost certain. In particular, if they can make it two-from-two against Melbourne, they’ll be on track for a home qualifying final.
Drop all three, which isn’t out of the question, and there’ll be a few nerves about making the four – especially if Carlton upsets Geelong next week – though Brisbane’s loss to Essendon helps the Dockers quite a bit (even if it was a one-week aberration caused by Covid outs).
Either way the Dockers aren’t missing the top six, so they’re getting at least one home final.
Fox Footy’s projection: 15.3 wins, finishing 3rd
4. BRISBANE LIONS (11-5, 124%)
Remaining games
Round 18: GWS Giants at Manuka Oval
Round 19: Gold Coast Suns at the Gabba
Round 20: Richmond at the MCG
Round 21: Carlton at the Gabba
Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium
Round 23: Melbourne at the Gabba
Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 93%
Remaining fixture difficulty: 5th-hardest
Bloody Covid. With nine forced outs, we’re happy to say the loss to Essendon was a bit of a fluke – though the Lions’ midfield, which wasn’t really hit by it, was poor once again which is a separate issue entirely.
The Lions’ strong percentage keeps them favoured for fourth, but now they can’t afford any slip-ups in the games they should win coming up, with Carlton and Collingwood each having a couple of easy games in the next three weeks.
That Round 21 clash with the Blues could end up being a mini-final to see who can make the four, with the loser in trouble, while Round 23’s clash with Melbourne looks even more pressing now for Brisbane. They’ll surely have to win it to have any chance of a home qualifying final.
So, again, the top four is still gettable. But there’s a big difference in the Lions’ flag hopes based on whether they just make the four, or if they finish top two, and the latter is much less likely now.
Fox Footy’s projection: 14.5 wins, finishing 4th
5. CARLTON (11-5, 116.8%)
Remaining games
Round 18: Geelong Cats at the MCG
Round 19: GWS Giants at Marvel Stadium
Round 20: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval
Round 21: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Round 22: Melbourne at the MCG
Round 23: Collingwood at the MCG
Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 93%
Remaining fixture difficulty: 4th-hardest
Blues fans seemed rather scared about the chance of their boys stumbling against West Coast – but, pothole avoided, they should be safe into September.
As long as Carlton beats the Giants and Crows, they’re virtually certain of playing finals, as it’d take a pretty miraculous run from any of the teams outside the eight to join them on 13 wins and pass them on percentage.
If you’re of the navy blue persuasion, you’re probably wanting a Bulldogs win this Friday night, and for the Demons and Lions to take care of business against the Power and Suns over the next couple of weeks, to be as safe as possible.
But if you’re of the navy blue persuasion you’re probably looking up, not down, and Brisbane’s loss means a top-four spot is within reach – especially if the Blues beat the Lions in Round 21.
We still think the Blues are the least likely of the 11-win trio to finish fourth, because they’re not as good as Brisbane (when Brisbane isn’t Covid-ruined) and have a harder fixture than Collingwood. But they play them both, so they can control their fate.
Fox Footy’s projection: 14 wins, finishing 6th
6. COLLINGWOOD (11-5, 106.3%)
Remaining games
Round 18: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval
Round 19: Essendon at the MCG
Round 20: Port Adelaide at the MCG
Round 21: Melbourne at the MCG
Round 22: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Round 23: Carlton at the MCG
Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 93%
Remaining fixture difficulty: 7th-hardest
Another close win for the Magpies, but they all count for four premiership points.
Of course struggling to beat North Melbourne makes us a bit more worried about them taking care of business against Adelaide and Essendon. But we suspect that was just a bad day for Craig McRae’s men, and they’ll be fine to reach 13 wins (and almost guaranteed safety).
After all even if they cop an upset over the next fortnight, we’d still suggest the Magpies can beat at least one of Port Adelaide or Carlton at the MCG.
In fact with Brisbane’s loss, the Magpies are closer to the top four than missing the eight – which is WILD! – and Round 23 against Carlton is almost certain to be decisive.
It would not shock us if we went into that final round with the Lions ahead of the Magpies and Blues, but with the Pies-Blues winner able to leapfrog Brisbane for fourth if they lose to Melbourne that round.
Fox Footy’s projection: 14.05 wins, finishing 5th
7. SYDNEY SWANS (10-6, 120.5%)
Remaining games
Round 18: Fremantle at Optus Stadium
Round 19: Adelaide Crows at the SCG
Round 20: GWS Giants at the SCG
Round 21: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: Collingwood at the SCG
Round 23: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium
Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 98%
Remaining fixture difficulty: 16th-hardest
We imagine those riding the Swans rollercoaster were feeling a bit sick last week, but thankfully things smoothed out against the Bulldogs, a win that should guarantee them finals footy.
Having won four in a row at the SCG, we’d suspect John Longmire’s men will win at least two of their remaining home games. Throw in the North Melbourne game and that’s your 13; combined with an excellent percentage, that’s them safe in the eight.
But keep in mind the Swans have lost more games to teams outside the eight (four) than to teams within it (two). So while they’re good enough to win five of their last six games, and potentially sneak into fourth, we’d expect them to stumble once or twice – making them elimination final bound.
Fox Footy’s projection: 13.75 wins, finishing 7th
8. RICHMOND (9-7, 116.4%)
Remaining games
Round 18: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium
Round 19: Fremantle at Marvel Stadium
Round 20: Brisbane Lions at the MCG
Round 21: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Round 22: Hawthorn at the MCG
Round 23: Essendon at the MCG
Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 67%
Remaining fixture difficulty: 14th-hardest
We’re still relatively confident the Tigers will play finals – that 0.7 projected win gap between themselves and the Saints, given they’re currently on the same win total, is huge.
But their fall-from-ahead loss to Gold Coast keeps them vulnerable if they get bogged down in that tricky three-week stretch against Fremantle, Brisbane and Port Adelaide, clearly the three hardest games left on their fixture.
Win just one and Richmond should play finals, with a very healthy percentage and a likely haul of 13 wins once they account for the Kangaroos, Hawks and Bombers.
But lose all three and they could be passed if St Kilda gets its act together, or by the Suns who have four very winnable games left and would only need one upset to reach that magical 13.
Things are at least a little bit nervy now, when if they’d held onto even some of that 40-point lead, they would’ve essentially been safe.
Fox Footy’s projection: 12.8 wins, finishing 8th
9. ST KILDA (9-7, 104.1%)
Remaining games
Round 18: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium
Round 19: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium
Round 20: Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium
Round 21: Geelong Cats at GMHBA Stadium
Round 22: Brisbane Lions at Marvel Stadium
Round 23: Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium
Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 67%
Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-hardest
Saturday night was a chance gone begging for the Saints, but the Tigers’ loss earlier in the day meant they weren’t going to be eliminated with a loss to Fremantle.
But they can’t afford any more slip-ups. This Friday night against the Bulldogs is a mini-final; if the Saints win that, and then get the job done against the Eagles and Hawks, that’s your 12 wins.
And then you’re just hoping you can upset one of the Cats, Lions or Swans. That’s in chronological order but it’s probably descending order of likelihood, too.
Getting to 12 seems doable. 13 seems very hard. But they should get to 12 before Richmond does, because the Tigers’ hardest remaining games happen before the Saints’ do. (If they get to 12 at the same time, that’s bad news.)
So in a few weeks’ time, they may have the psychological benefit of being in the eight and defending a spot, as compared to fighting to get in. If you believe in that sort of thing.
Fox Footy’s projection: 12.1 wins, finishing 9th
10. WESTERN BULLDOGS (8-8, 110.4%)
Remaining games
Round 18: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium
Round 19: Melbourne at Marvel Stadium
Round 20: Geelong Cats at GMHBA Stadium
Round 21: Fremantle at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: GWS Giants at Marvel Stadium
Round 23: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium
Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 34%
Remaining fixture difficulty: 3rd-hardest
The Bulldogs are probably done but Saturday’s losses for the Tigers and Saints mean they’re only one game out of the eight, not two – which is a big difference.
They’re still going to find it a difficult gap to close, given they play three members of the top four over the next month and they’re giving up 100 points most weeks.
If they go 3-1 over their next four, they’re a chance. They’ve shown us nothing over the last two weeks to suggest they can beat multiple top-four teams, but at least they get the Demons and Dockers at Marvel?
Realistically, a major turnaround in form excepted, we’re going to see one of the previous year’s Grand Finalists miss the top eight for the fifth time in six seasons.
Fox Footy’s projection: 11.45 wins, finishing 10th
11. GOLD COAST SUNS (8-8, 108.9%)
Remaining games
Round 18: Essendon at Marvel Stadium
Round 19: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Round 20: West Coast Eagles at Metricon Stadium
Round 21: Hawthorn at UTAS Stadium
Round 22: Geelong Cats at Metricon Stadium
Round 23: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium
Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 34%
Remaining fixture difficulty: 18th-hardest (Easiest)
One of the greatest wins in the history of the club could have a fittingly large impact on their season. Because finals are not out of the question.
There is a clear path to 12 wins. They’ll be favourites against the Bombers, Eagles, Hawks and Kangaroos; beating three gives the Suns their most successful season, and beating all four gets them to the usual minimum bar for September.
If they can get to 12 wins, and someone in the eight (most likely Richmond) keeps falling over, they’re a chance. An unlikely chance, yes. But it’s not impossible to imagine Richmond losing to Fremantle, Brisbane and Port Adelaide (away).
We still think you need 13 wins to play finals this year, and that means beating either Brisbane at the Gabba or Geelong at Metricon. Both of those things are very difficult, and not only do they need one of those upsets, but everything else has to go right, too.
But the door to the eight is ajar, because on Saturday evening, they became the doorstop.
Fox Footy’s projection: 11.2 wins, finishing 11th
12. PORT ADELAIDE (8-8, 108.6%)
Remaining games
Round 18: Melbourne at TIO Traeger Park
Round 19: Geelong Cats at Adelaide Oval
Round 20: Collingwood at the MCG
Round 21: Richmond at Adelaide Oval
Round 22: Essendon at Marvel Stadium
Round 23: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval
Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 34%
Remaining fixture difficulty: 6th-hardest
Man, if they had completed that comeback against Freo they’d really be in the mix right now.
Instead, the Power remain on the outside looking in – but they can almost control their own fate, even from 12th on the ladder.
After all, beat Richmond and they’ll be level with the team currently in eighth, and then it’d be about outperforming them over the other five games (and, ideally, passing them on percentage).
There is a path to be taken here. It remains very unlikely, and they need to beat two of Melbourne, Geelong and Collingwood first, but the path exists.
Fox Footy’s projection: 10.95 wins, finishing 12th
WON’T PLAY FINALS
13. GWS GIANTS (5-11, 89.4%)
Remaining games
Round 18: Brisbane Lions at Manuka Oval
Round 19: Carlton at Marvel Stadium
Round 20: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Round 21: Essendon at Giants Stadium
Round 22: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium
Round 23: Fremantle at Manuka Oval
Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 4%
Remaining fixture difficulty: 2nd-hardest
Fox Footy’s projection: 7.4 wins, finishing 16th
14. HAWTHORN (5-11, 87.5%)
Remaining games
Round 18: West Coast Eagles at the MCG
Round 19: North Melbourne at Blundstone Arena
Round 20: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium
Round 21: Gold Coast Suns at UTAS Stadium
Round 22: Richmond at the MCG
Round 23: Western Bulldogs at UTAS Stadium
Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 4%
Remaining fixture difficulty: 17th-hardest
Fox Footy’s projection: 7.9 wins, finishing 13th
15. ADELAIDE CROWS (5-11, 83.1%)
Remaining games
Round 18: Collingwood at Adelaide Oval
Round 19: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Round 20: Carlton at Adelaide Oval
Round 21: West Coast Eagles at Optus Stadium
Round 22: North Melbourne at Adelaide Oval
Round 23: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval
Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 4%
Remaining fixture difficulty: 15th-hardest
Fox Footy’s projection: 7.65 wins, finishing 14th
16. ESSENDON (5-11, 82.4%)
Remaining games
Round 18: Gold Coast Suns at Marvel Stadium
Round 19: Collingwood at the MCG
Round 20: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium
Round 21: GWS Giants at Giants Stadium
Round 22: Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium
Round 23: Richmond at the MCG
Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 4%
Remaining fixture difficulty: 13th-hardest
Fox Footy’s projection: 7.5 wins, finishing 15th
17. WEST COAST EAGLES (2-14, 56.4%)
Remaining games
Round 18: Hawthorn at the MCG
Round 19: St Kilda at Optus Stadium
Round 20: Gold Coast Suns at Metricon Stadium
Round 21: Adelaide Crows at Optus Stadium
Round 22: Fremantle at Optus Stadium
Round 23: Geelong Cats at GMHBA Stadium
Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 0%
Remaining fixture difficulty: 8th-hardest
Fox Footy’s projection: 3.8 wins, finishing 17th
18. NORTH MELBOURNE (1-15, 51.7%)
Remaining games
Round 18: Richmond at Marvel Stadium
Round 19: Hawthorn at Blundstone Arena
Round 20: Essendon at Marvel Stadium
Round 21: Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval
Round 23: Gold Coast Suns at Marvel Stadium
Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 0%
Remaining fixture difficulty: 12th-hardest
Fox Footy’s projection: 2.35 wins, finishing 18th
